The change has begun – HP Software revenue declines further

Did anyone see this today. HP reported that their Business Technology Optimization revenue declined 16% year on year.

Now, of course that’s caused by the global recession right? Or is it?

BMC recently reported that their ESM bookings had declined by 9% year on year in their latest quarter. Let’s think about that one for a second….Bladelogic seems to be doing great (big relationship with Cisco etc), Remedy is probably holding up, so Patrol/Service Assurance is likely collapsing fast.

Maybe it’s caused by the fact that now, more than ever, some of these large vendors are under attack from fresher technologies, flexible business models and value based pricing. These products are already overly complex and over-priced but Cloud Computing demands flexibility, pay as you use pricing and low overhead/maintenance.

That’s clearly something that vendors who are reliant on huge, multi-million dollar perpetual license fees from large customers who have previously not had a choice, are going to have a difficult time dealing with.

Now of course, this is my own personal opinion but I talk to a lot of customers and I know that there is a lot of replacement business is happening and it appears to be accelerating.

As previously blogged, I truly believe that in the “management stack”, like so many others, Cloud changes everything and the large software vendors of today have a limited time period to either adapt or be rendered dinosaurs.

We’ll see….

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